II. Natürlicher und anthropogener Klimawandel

12. Wird der Golfstrom versiegen?

1. PIK (2015): Golfstromsystem verliert an Kraft – Klimawandel im Verdacht 24.03.2015, https://www.pik-potsdam.de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/atlantic-ocean-overturning-found-to-slow-down-already-today

2. Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015): Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation: Nature Climate Change 5 (5), 475-480.

3. Rahmstorf, S. (2019): Was sagen die Klimaberichte von 2018 über die Abschwächung des Golfstromsystems?: KlimaLounge, 28.1.2019 https://scilogs.spektrum.de/klimalounge/was-sagen-die-klimaberichte-von-2018-ueber-die-abschwaechung-des-golfstromsystems/

4. Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., Saba, V. (2018): Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation: Nature 556 (7700), 191-196.

5. DKK (2017): Webseite: Zukunft der Golfstromzirkulation: https://www.deutsches-klima-konsortium.de/index.php?id=556

6. DKK (2017): Broschüre: Zukunft der Golfstromzirkulation: https://www.deutsches-klima-konsortium.de/fileadmin/user_upload/pdfs/Publikationen_DKK/Zukunft_der_Golfstromzirkulation_DKK_KDM.pdf

7. Parker, A., Ollier, C. D. (2016): There is no real evidence for a diminishing trend of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Journal of Ocean Engineering and Science 1 (1), 30-35.

8. VG (2015): Avfeier påstander om at Golfstrømmen bråstanser: 13.5.2015, https://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/K0nVe/avfeier-paastander-om-at-golfstroemmen-braastanser

9. NASA (2010): NASA Study Finds Atlantic ‚Conveyor Belt‘ Not Slowing: 25.3.2010, https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlantic20100325.html

10. Willis, J. K. (2010): Can in situ floats and satellite altimeters detect long-term changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning?: Geophysical Research Letters 37 (6).

11. Rossby, T., Flagg, C. N., Donohue, K., Sanchez-Franks, A., Lillibridge, J. (2014): On the long-term stability of Gulf Stream transport based on 20 years of direct measurements: Geophysical Research Letters 41 (1), 114-120.

12. Ezer, T. (2015): Detecting changes in the transport of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic overturning circulation from coastal sea level data: The extreme decline in 2009–2010 and estimated variations for 1935–2012: Global and Planetary Change 129, 23-36.

13. Jackson, L. C., Peterson, K. A., Roberts, C. D., Wood, R. A. (2016): Recent slowing of Atlantic overturning circulation as a recovery from earlier strengthening: Nature Geoscience 9 (7), 518-522.

14. Chen, X., Tung, K.-K. (2018): Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation: Nature 559 (7714), 387-391.

15. McCarthy, G. D., Joyce, T. M., Josey, S. A. (2018): Gulf Stream Variability in the Context of Quasi-Decadal and Multidecadal Atlantic Climate Variability: Geophysical Research Letters 45 (20), 11,257-211,264.

16. Smeed, D. A., McCarthy, G. D., Cunningham, S. A., Frajka-Williams, E., Rayner, D., Johns, W. E., Meinen, C. S., Baringer, M. O., Moat, B. I., Duchez, A., Bryden, H. L. (2014): Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004-2012: Ocean Sci. 10 (1), 29-38.

17. Delworth, T. L., Zeng, F. (2016): The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Climate through Its Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Journal of Climate 29 (3), 941-962.

18. Wen, N., Frankignoul, C., Gastineau, G. (2016): Active AMOC–NAO coupling in the IPSL-CM5A-MR climate model: Climate Dynamics 47 (7), 2105-2119.

19. Sun, C., Li, J., Jin, F.-F. (2015): A delayed oscillator model for the quasi-periodic multidecadal variability of the NAO: Climate Dynamics 45 (7), 2083-2099.

20. Moffa-Sanchez, P., Born, A., Hall, I. R., Thornalley, D. J. R., Barker, S. (2014): Solar forcing of North Atlantic surface temperature and salinity over the past millennium: Nature Geosci 7 (4), 275-278.

21. Menary, M. B., Scaife, A. A. (2014): Naturally forced multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Climate Dynamics 42 (5), 1347-1362.

22. Der Spiegel (2015): Umstrittene Studie: Schwächelt der Golfstrom? : 23.3.2015, https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/klimawandel-forscher-warnen-vor-abschwaechung-des-golfstroms-a-1025163.html

23. Die Welt (2017): Wie lange bleibt der Golfstrom noch stabil?: 21.7.2017, https://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/wissen/article166862253/Wie-lange-bleibt-der-Golfstrom-noch-stabil.html

24. Saenko, O. A., Yang, D., Myers, P. G. (2017): Response of the North Atlantic dynamic sea level and circulation to Greenland meltwater and climate change in an eddy-permitting ocean model: Climate Dynamics 49 (7), 2895-2910.

25. Dukhovskoy, D. S., Yashayaev, I., Proshutinsky, A., Bamber, J. L., Bashmachnikov, I. L., Chassignet, E. P., Lee, C. M., Tedstone, A. J. (2019): Role of Greenland Freshwater Anomaly in the Recent Freshening of the Subpolar North Atlantic: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 124 (5), 3333-3360.

26. Böning, C. W., Behrens, E., Biastoch, A., Getzlaff, K., Bamber, J. L. (2016): Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean: Nature Geoscience 9 (7), 523-527.

27. Geomar (2016): Atempause für den Golfstrom: 20.6.2016, https://www.geomar.de/service/kommunikation/singlepm/article/atempause-fuer-den-golfstrom/

28. de Jong, M. F., de Steur, L. (2016): Strong winter cooling over the Irminger Sea in winter 2014–2015, exceptional deep convection, and the emergence of anomalously low SST: Geophysical Research Letters 43 (13), 7106-7113.

29. Mooney, C. (2016): The mysterious ‘cold blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean is starting to give up its secrets: 30.6.2016, The Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/30/the-mysterious-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-is-starting-to-give-up-its-secrets/

30. University of Bergen (2016): The Gulfstream may strengthen with more precipitation in the far north: 24.11.2016, https://bjerknes.uib.no/en/article/news/gulfstream-can-strengthen-more-precipitation-north

31. Lambert, E., Eldevik, T., Haugan, P. M. (2016): How northern freshwater input can stabilise thermohaline circulation: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 68 (1), 31051.

32. Kelly, K. A., Drushka, K., Thompson, L., Le Bars, D., McDonagh, E. L. (2016): Impact of slowdown of Atlantic overturning circulation on heat and freshwater transports: Geophysical Research Letters 43 (14), 7625-7631.

33. University of Washington (2016): Atlantic Ocean’s slowdown tied to changes in the Southern Hemisphere 5.10.2016, https://www.washington.edu/news/2016/10/05/atlantic-oceans-slowdown-tied-to-changes-in-the-southern-hemisphere/

34. Yale University (2019): Atlantic Ocean may get a jump start from the other side of the world: 16.9.2019, https://news.yale.edu/2019/09/16/atlantic-ocean-may-get-jump-start-other-side-world

35. Hu, S., Fedorov, A. V. (2019): Indian Ocean warming can strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: Nature Climate Change 9 (10), 747-751.

36. Lozier, M. S., Li, F., Bacon, S., Bahr, F., Bower, A. S., Cunningham, S. A., de Jong, M. F., de Steur, L., deYoung, B., Fischer, J., Gary, S. F., Greenan, B. J. W., Holliday, N. P., Houk, A., Houpert, L., Inall, M. E., Johns, W. E., Johnson, H. L., Johnson, C., Karstensen, J., Koman, G., Le Bras, I. A., Lin, X., Mackay, N., Marshall, D. P., Mercier, H., Oltmanns, M., Pickart, R. S., Ramsey, A. L., Rayner, D., Straneo, F., Thierry, V., Torres, D. J., Williams, R. G., Wilson, C., Yang, J., Yashayaev, I., Zhao, J. (2019): A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic: Science 363 (6426), 516-521.

37. Mooney, C. (2019): A surprising new picture of ocean circulation could have major consequences for climate science: 31.1.2019, Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/01/31/surprising-new-picture-ocean-circulation-could-have-major-consequences-climate-science/

38. Yan, X., Zhang, R., Knutson, T. R. (2018): Underestimated AMOC Variability and Implications for AMV and Predictability in CMIP Models: Geophysical Research Letters 45 (9), 4319-4328.

39. Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Kim, W. M., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Bleck, R., Böning, C., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M., Cassou, C., Chassignet, E., Coward, A. C., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Farneti, R., Fernandez, E., Fogli, P. G., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Griffies, S. M., Gusev, A., Heimbach, P., Howard, A., Ilicak, M., Jung, T., Karspeck, A. R., Kelley, M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Lu, J., Madec, G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., Navarra, A., Nurser, A. J. G., Pirani, A., Romanou, A., Salas y Mélia, D., Samuels, B. L., Scheinert, M., Sidorenko, D., Sun, S., Treguier, A.-M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valcke, S., Voldoire, A., Wang, Q., Yashayaev, I. (2016): North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability: Ocean Modelling 97, 65-90.

40. Danabasoglu, G., Yeager, S. G., Bailey, D., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M., Cassou, C., Chassignet, E., Coward, A. C., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Farneti, R., Fernandez, E., Fogli, P. G., Forget, G., Fujii, Y., Griffies, S. M., Gusev, A., Heimbach, P., Howard, A., Jung, T., Kelley, M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Lu, J., Madec, G., Marsland, S. J., Masina, S., Navarra, A., George Nurser, A. J., Pirani, A., y Mélia, D. S., Samuels, B. L., Scheinert, M., Sidorenko, D., Treguier, A.-M., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Valcke, S., Voldoire, A., Wang, Q. (2014): North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part I: Mean states: Ocean Modelling 73, 76-107.

41. Lin, Y.-J., Hwang, Y.-T., Ceppi, P., Gregory, J. M. (2019): Uncertainty in the Evolution of Climate Feedback Traced to the Strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Geophysical Research Letters 46 (21), 12331-12339.

42. Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Hughes, M. K., Bradley, R. S., Miller, S. K., Rutherford, S., Ni, F. (2008): Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia: PNAS 105 (36), 13252-13257.

43. Mann, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K., Shindell, D., Ammann, C., Faluvegi, G., Ni, F. (2009): Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly: Science 326 (5957), 1256-1260.

44. Hawkins, E. (2015): Extreme UK heatwaves: Kommentar 27.3.2015, 2:40 pm, http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2015/extreme-uk-heatwaves/#comment-1545

45. Trouet, V., Esper, J., Graham, N. E., Baker, A., Scourse, J. D., Frank, D. C. (2009): Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly: Science 324 (5923), 78-80.

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47. Trouet, V., Scourse, J. D., Raible, C. C. (2012): North Atlantic storminess and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last Millennium: Reconciling contradictory proxy records of NAO variability: Global and Planetary Change 84-85, 48-55.

48. Lund, D. C., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W. B. (2006): Gulf Stream density structure and transport during the past millennium: Nature 444 (7119), 601-604.

49. Wanamaker, A. D., Butler, P. G., Scourse, J. D., Heinemeier, J., Eiríksson, J., Knudsen, K. L., Richardson, C. A. (2012): Surface changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last millennium: Nature Communications 3 (1), 899.

50. Ayache, M., Swingedouw, D., Mary, Y., Eynaud, F., Colin, C. (2018): Multi-centennial variability of the AMOC over the Holocene: A new reconstruction based on multiple proxy-derived SST records: Global and Planetary Change 170, 172-189.

51. Lippold, J., Luo, Y., Francois, R., Allen, S. E., Gherardi, J., Pichat, S., Hickey, B., Schulz, H. (2012): Strength and geometry of the glacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Nature Geoscience 5 (11), 813-816.

52. Böhm, E., Lippold, J., Gutjahr, M., Frank, M., Blaser, P., Antz, B., Fohlmeister, J., Frank, N., Andersen, M. B., Deininger, M. (2015): Strong and deep Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last glacial cycle: Nature 517 (7532), 73-76.

53. Universität Heidelberg (2014): Klimawandel: Ozeanzirkulation im Atlantik ist stabiler als gedacht: 15.12.2014, https://www.uni-heidelberg.de/presse/meldungen/2014/m20141215_klimawandel_ozeanzirkulation_atlantik_stabiler.html

54. Zeit Online (2012): Klimaforscher Mojib Latif: „Alarmismus ist mindestens genauso schlimm wie Skeptizismus“: 21.2.2012, https://www.zeit.de/wissen/umwelt/2012-02/mojib-latif-klimaskepsis-interview/komplettansicht

55. Wang, W., Matthes, K., Omrani, N.-E., Latif, M. (2016): Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Scientific Reports 6 (1), 29537.

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