VI. KLIMAMODELLE UND VORHERSAGEN

29. Gibt es natürliche Klimamuster, die uns bei Prognosen helfen könnten?

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8. Wu, B., Zhou, T., Li, C., Müller, W. A., Lin, J. (2019): Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature: Climate Dynamics 53 (3), 1357-1369.

9. University of Southampton (2015): Global Climate on Verge of Multi-Decadal Change: 27.5.2015, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150527133932.htm

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12. Li, J., Sun, C., Jin, F.-F. (2013): NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability: Geophysical Research Letters 40 (20), 5497-5502.

13. Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L. (2006): Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes: Geophysical Research Letters 33 (17).

14. Klotzbach, P., Gray, W., Fogarty, C. (2015): Active Atlantic hurricane era at its end?: Nature Geoscience 8 (10), 737-738.

15. Klöwer, M., Latif, M., Ding, H., Greatbatch, R. J., Park, W. (2014): Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature: Earth and Planetary Science Letters 406, 1-6.

16. Geomar (2014): Wie entwickeln sich die Temperaturen im Nordatlantik?: 15.10.2014, https://www.geomar.de/service/kommunikation/singlepm/article/wie-entwickeln-sich-die-temperaturen-im-nordatlantik/

17. Latif, M., Böning, C., Willebrand, J., Biastoch, A., Dengg, J., Keenlyside, N., Schweckendiek, U. (2006): Is the Thermohaline Circulation Changing?: Journal of Climate 19, 4631-4637.

18. Hazeleger, W., Wouters, B., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Corti, S., Palmer, T., Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., von Storch, J.-S. (2013): Predicting multiyear North Atlantic Ocean variability: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 118 (3), 1087-1098.

19. Matei, D., Baehr, J., Jungclaus, J. H., Haak, H., Müller, W. A., Marotzke, J. (2012): Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N: Science 335 (6064), 76-79.

20. Bordbar, M. H., England, M. H., Sen Gupta, A., Santoso, A., Taschetto, A. S., Martin, T., Park, W., Latif, M. (2019): Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability: Nature Communications 10 (1), 1990.

21. Geomar (2019): Tropischer Pazifik Schlüsselregion für erfolgreiche Klimavorhersagen: 21.5.2019, https://www.geomar.de/de/news/article/tropischer-pazifik-schluesselregion-fuer-erfolgreiche-klimavorhersagen/

22. University of Arizona (2016): Pacific Sea Level Predicts Global Temperature Changes 18.8.2016, https://uanews.arizona.edu/story/pacific-sea-level-predicts-global-temperature-changes

23. Meehl, G. A., Hu, A., Santer, B. D., Xie, S.-P. (2016): Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends: Nature Clim. Change 6 (11), 1005-1008.

24. Steinman, B. A., Mann, M. E., Miller, S. K. (2015): Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures: Science 347 (6225), 988-991.

25. Chen, X., Tung, K.-K. (2014): Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration: Science 345 (6199), 897-903.

26. ORF (2015): Kühler Pazifik bremst globale Erwärmung: 27.2.2015, https://sciencev2.orf.at/stories/1754636/index.html

27. Johansson, Å. (2007): Prediction Skill of the NAO and PNA from Daily to Seasonal Time Scales: Journal of Climate 20 (10), 1957-1975.

28. Scaife, A. A., Arribas, A., Blockley, E., Brookshaw, A., Clark, R. T., Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Fereday, D., Folland, C. K., Gordon, M., Hermanson, L., Knight, J. R., Lea, D. J., MacLachlan, C., Maidens, A., Martin, M., Peterson, A. K., Smith, D., Vellinga, M., Wallace, E., Waters, J., Williams, A. (2014): Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters: Geophysical Research Letters 41 (7), 2514-2519.

29. Smith, D. M., Scaife, A. A., Eade, R., Knight, J. R. (2016): Seasonal to decadal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation: emerging capability and future prospects: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142 (695), 611-617.

30. Dunstone, N., Smith, D., Scaife, A., Hermanson, L., Eade, R., Robinson, N., Andrews, M., Knight, J. (2016): Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead: Nature Geoscience 9, 809.

31. Wang, L., Ting, M., Kushner, P. J. (2017): A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate: Scientific Reports 7 (1), 279.

32. Meehl, G. A., Teng, H., Arblaster, J. M. (2014): Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming: Nature Climate Change 4 (10), 898-902.

33. Schmidt, D., Boyd, P. W. (2016): Forecast ocean variability: Nature, 8.11.2016, https://www.nature.com/news/forecast-ocean-variability-1.20934

34. University of Bristol (2016): Experts call on international climate change panel to better reflect ocean variability in their projections: 9.11.2016, http://www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2016/november/climate-change-panel-oceans-.html

35. Farneti, R. (2017): Modelling interdecadal climate variability and the role of the ocean: WIREs Climate Change 8 (1), e441.

36. Kravtsov, S. (2017): Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century: Geophysical Research Letters 44 (11), 5749-5757.

37. Salvador, R. J. (2013): A mathematical model of the sunspot cycle for the past 1000 yr: Pattern Recogn. Phys. 1 (1), 117-122.

38. Ahluwalia, H. S. (2014): An empirical approach to predicting the key parameters for a sunspot number cycle: Advances in Space Research 53 (3), 568-573.

39. Tlatov, A. G. (2015): The change of the solar cyclicity mode: Advances in Space Research 55 (3), 851-856.

40. Yndestad, H., Solheim, J.-E. (2017): The influence of solar system oscillation on the variability of the total solar irradiance: New Astronomy 51, 135-152.

41. Velasco Herrera, V. M., Mendoza, B., Velasco Herrera, G. (2015): Reconstruction and prediction of the total solar irradiance: From the Medieval Warm Period to the 21st century: New Astronomy 34, 221-233.

42. Graßl, H. (1990): Wir Klimamacher, S. Fischer Verlag, 295 p.:

43. IPCC (2018): Special Report on global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

44. PIK (2009): Meeresspiegel könnte innerhalb dieses Jahrhunderts bis zu 1,9 Meter ansteigen: 7.12.2009, https://www.pik-potsdam.de/aktuelles/pressemitteilungen/archiv/2009/meeresspiegel-koennte-innerhalb-dieses-jahrhunderts-bis-zu-1-9-meter-ansteigen

45. Vermeer, M., Rahmstorf, S. (2009): Global sea level linked to global temperature: PNAS 106 (51), 21527-21532.

46. Die Zeit (2009): Kampf um jeden Zentimeter: 20.8.2009, https://www.zeit.de/2009/35/U-Meeresspiegelanstieg

47. IPCC (2013): Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press, 1535 p.:

48. Clark, P. U., Church, J. A., Gregory, J. M., Payne, A. J. (2015): Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change: Current Climate Change Reports 1 (4), 224-246.

49. IPCC (2019): Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC): Summary for Policymakers (SPM), https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/